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On-chain support/resistance

Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Bands

BTC price with modeled STH cost basis, Mezzanine and Floor support bands

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Chart informationBitcoin: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Bands

About This Indicator

This chart estimates Short-Term Holder (STH) cost-basis bands: the average price paid by holders who acquired coins within the last ~155 days, plus Mezzanine and Floor support bands below it. This app does not have access to a free source for the real metric, which requires the full UTXO age-cohort realized-price data that every provider checked (CoinMetrics, bitcoin-data.com) gates behind a paid tier. Instead, STH Cost Basis is modeled with a 155-day simple moving average of price (a widely used stand-in for the ~155-day STH cohort window), and Mezzanine/Floor are offset below it by multiples of the empirical volatility of price relative to that average, calibrated to match a published reference reading. Treat this as an approximation of the shape of the real metric, not a precise on-chain measurement.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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STH cost basis (modeled)
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Mezzanine
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STH floor
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The bands are still warming up (the underlying 155-day moving average needs roughly 5 months of price history).

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history (daily closes).
  • STH Cost Basis: modeled proxy, not a directly measured metric — 155-day simple moving average of price. Mezzanine and Floor are offset below it by 0.65× and 1.25× the empirical stdev of ln(price / SMA155), calibrated against a published reference reading. See "About" for details and limitations.

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