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On-Chain Collection

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in Profit

Modeled from real LTH-MVRV data — a bottom/top-signal indicator for long-term holder supply in profit

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Chart informationBitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in Profit

About This Indicator

LTH Percent Supply in Profit estimates the share of Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply whose cost basis sits below the current price. This app does not have access to a free source for the full LTH UTXO cost-basis distribution the real metric needs. Instead, this chart is grounded in bitcoin-data.com's real LTH-MVRV series (price ÷ the LTH cohort's own realized price) passed through the same statistical curve used by the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. Real LTH-MVRV data is only available back to 2022-08 (a hard limit on the free tier of every metric checked from this vendor), so the dashed portion of the line before that date is a second-order estimate: fitted from the real relationship between LTH-MVRV and network-wide MVRV over the 2022+ overlap, then applied to real network MVRV history back to 2013. Treat the solid portion as an approximation of the real metric's shape; treat the dashed portion as an approximation of an approximation, not a precise on-chain measurement either way.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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LTH percent supply in profit
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Mean + 1σ threshold
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Mean − 1σ threshold
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Signal
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Waiting for LTH-MVRV data.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history
  • LTH-MVRV: bitcoin-data.com API (price ÷ the Long-Term Holder cohort's own realized price), the same vendor already used for this app's LTH-SOPR, STH-SOPR and Reserve Risk charts — real data from 2022-08 onward only
  • Pre-2022 estimate: LTH-MVRV fitted as a power-law function of real network-wide MVRV (price ÷ realized price, real back to ~2013) over the 2022+ overlap window, then projected backward — shown dashed on the chart, flagged separately from the real 2022+ series.
  • LTH Percent Supply in Profit: modeled proxy, not a directly measured metric — a split-sigma normal CDF of ln(LTH-MVRV), reusing the same calibration as the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. See "About" for details and limitations.

Last Updated

Waiting for data

Related Charts

  • Bitcoin NUPLNet Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates aggregate unrealized profit or loss across the network, approximated in this app from price and realized price.
  • SOPR Ratio (LTH/STH)Divides long-term holder SOPR by short-term holder SOPR to compare profit-taking behavior between experienced holders and newer market participants. SOPR itself measures whether spent coins are moving in profit or loss.
  • Bitcoin Supply Unmoved 4+ YearsTracks the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in addresses that have not moved coins in over 4 years, alongside Bitcoin price. This "dormant supply" grows as long-term holders accumulate and hold through market cycles, and tends to fall when old coins get spent, which has often coincided with distribution near cycle tops. Real UTXO age-band supply data, sourced from Bitview (Bitcoin Research Kit), a free public on-chain analytics API — not a proxy or model.
  • LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR SplitShows long-term and short-term holder SOPR separately instead of as a combined ratio, so profit-taking by holder cohort can be compared.