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Chart Library

Tracked Bitcoin Models

New Charts

Composite score smoothed and classified into 5 cycle regimes

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator

A disclosed proxy for CryptoQuant's closed-source Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator: the Overheat Score's -100 to +100 composite of ten on-chain and technical signals, smoothed with a 30-day moving average and classified into five regimes — Overheated Bull, Bull, Early Bull, Bear and Extreme Bear. A 365-day moving average of the same score is shown for longer-term context.

Dormant supply share — long-term holder conviction gauge

Bitcoin Supply Unmoved 4+ Years

Tracks the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in addresses that have not moved coins in over 4 years, alongside Bitcoin price. Real UTXO age-band supply data from Bitview (Bitcoin Research Kit), a free public on-chain analytics API. Rising dormant supply reflects growing long-term holder conviction through a cycle; renewed spending of old coins has historically coincided with distribution near cycle tops.

Weekly MFI with confirmed cycle top/bottom markers

Bitcoin Money Flow Index Cycle Phases

BTC weekly price with a standard 14-period Money Flow Index, marking each cycle's Top, First Low, Second Low and Bottom. Real Binance weekly OHLC is used from 2017-08 onward; on-chain transaction volume substitutes for exchange volume. Markers only ever appear once fully confirmed by real, already-elapsed price history — never a forecast.

Modeled cycle top/bottom channel on realized price

Bitcoin Realized Cap Cycle Bands

Inspired by CryptoCon's "Simple Bands" indicator: a Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom band around Realized Price (the Midline). The original is closed-source, so this models the bands by fitting the historical MVRV ratio at confirmed cycle extremes against time — both multipliers shrink toward the Midline each cycle, the same diminishing-returns pattern seen across Bitcoin's market history.

Cycle-aligned countdown comparison

Halving Cycle Countdown

Aligns every halving cycle by today's exact distance from the next projected halving, rebasing price to 100 at that same reference day so what happened next in every prior cycle can be compared from the same starting position.

Peak-to-recovery drawdown comparison

Bitcoin Cycle Drawdowns

Compares Bitcoin's percentage drawdown from each cycle peak, aligning every cycle by days since its all-time-high so depth and duration can be compared directly.

Estimated leveraged liquidation clusters

BTC Liquidation Heatmap

Estimates where leveraged BTC futures positions are likely to be liquidated, modeling open interest across assumed leverage tiers against recent price action as a density heatmap.

LTH-MVRV-derived share of LTH supply in profit — bottom/top signal

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in Profit

Estimates the share of Long-Term Holder supply whose cost basis sits below the current price. Grounded in bitcoin-data.com's real LTH-MVRV series (price ÷ the LTH cohort's own realized price), fed through the same modeled curve used by the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. Dips to the mean − 1σ threshold have historically coincided with major cycle-bottom capitulation.

Real 6-week candles with a Slow Stochastic (8,3,3) bottom-zone signal

Bitcoin 6-Week Candle Cycle Oscillator

Aggregates real Bitcoin weekly OHLC candles (Binance spot BTCUSDT) into 6-week candles, then plots a standard Slow Stochastic Oscillator (8,3,3) beneath them. The shaded "bottom zone" (%D below 20) is a textbook oversold threshold, marking only already-observed historical episodes — never a future or forecast bottom.

Valuation Models

Scarcity valuation

Stock-to-Flow Model

Tracks Bitcoin scarcity using circulating supply and issuance flow, with a simplified model price for long-term valuation context.

Scarcity valuation with miner revenue

Stock-to-Income Ratio

Extends the stock-to-flow idea by including miner transaction fees in issuance flow, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.

Market value vs realized value

MVRV Z-Score

Compares Bitcoin market cap to realized cap using a Z-Score to identify statistically extreme overvaluation and undervaluation periods.

Aggregate on-chain cost basis

Realized Price

Shows BTC market price against the average price where coins last moved on-chain. Price below realized price has historically marked broad holder losses and cycle stress.

Long-term power law trend

Bitcoin Power Law Chart

Models Bitcoin price as a power function of time since genesis, with floor and ceiling bands that have historically contained price action across market cycles.

Long-term power law floor

Bitcoin Bear Market Floor (Power Law)

Fits a power-law regression to Bitcoin's six well-documented historical bear-market lows, extrapolated forward as an illustrative long-term price floor.

Cycle top and bottom targets

Price Forecast Tools

A price forecast chart using BTC price, Top Cap, Delta Top, and CVDD to identify historically reliable Bitcoin cycle-top and bear-market-floor targets.

Bitcoin's P/E ratio

NVT Ratio

Network Value to Transactions ratio: Bitcoin market cap divided by daily on-chain transaction volume. High NVT can signal overvaluation relative to usage; low NVT can suggest undervaluation.

Market cap vs cumulative miner spend

Thermocap Multiple

Market cap divided by cumulative total miner revenue. It measures how expensive Bitcoin is relative to all security spend ever made; historically high multiples often coincided with cycle tops.

Market cap vs aggregate cost basis

Bitcoin Realized Cap

Compares Bitcoin market cap with realized cap in dollar terms — the same relationship the MVRV Z-Score is built from, shown as raw cap values rather than a standardized score.

Modeled share of supply in profit — bottom signal

Bitcoin: Percent Supply in Profit

Estimates the share of circulating Bitcoin whose cost basis sits below the current price. No free source provides the real UTXO cost-basis distribution, so this models it from the MVRV ratio (already used by the MVRV Z-Score chart), calibrated against 8 known historical cycle tops and bottoms. Dips to the mean − 1σ threshold have historically coincided with major cycle-bottom capitulation.

Modeled cycle top/bottom channel on realized price

Bitcoin Realized Cap Cycle Bands

Inspired by CryptoCon's "Simple Bands" indicator: a Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom band around Realized Price (the Midline). The original is closed-source, so this models the bands by fitting the historical MVRV ratio at confirmed cycle extremes against time — both multipliers shrink toward the Midline each cycle, the same diminishing-returns pattern seen across Bitcoin's market history.

Power-law bands with BTC/gold overheating gauges

Bitcoin Support & Resistance

Power-law trendline with support and resistance bands, paired with two oscillators: BTC's percentage deviation from the trendline, and a 52-week Z-score of the BTC/gold ratio measuring how stretched Bitcoin is relative to gold on a rolling basis.

Cycle Models

Cycle valuation bands

Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart

Compares price against logarithmic cycle bands so cooler accumulation zones and overheated market periods are easy to scan.

Five-zone valuation map

Bitcoin On-Chain Value Map

A coarser five-zone take on the logarithmic cycle bands, with all-time-high markers and right-edge dollar levels for each zone boundary.

Cycle top crossover

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day moving average to identify potential cycle-top signals.

Composite cycle top/bottom score

Bitcoin Overheat Score

Combines ten on-chain and technical signals (MVRV Z-Score, Fear & Greed, Rainbow Bands, NUPL, VDD Multiple, Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, and Global M2 YoY) into a single -100 to +100 reading, highlighting historically overheated and capitulation-style conditions.

Blended 912-day-rescaled cycle oscillator

Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Oscillator

Blends MVRV Ratio, Mayer Multiple and Puell Multiple, each rescaled to its own trailing 912-day (~2.5-year) high/low, into one smoothed 0-1 oscillator. It resets toward 0 near cycle-bottom capitulation and climbs toward 1 near cycle-top euphoria, coloured blue while rising and red while falling.

Cycle bottom signal

Bitcoin CVDD

Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed tracks the accumulated value-time of coin movements relative to market age. It has historically marked major Bitcoin price bottoms.

Cycle position and momentum

Bitcoin Halving Spiral

Plots Bitcoin price on a polar chart where one full rotation equals one halving cycle. The logarithmic radius overlays cycles so bull and bear phases can be compared.

Spending velocity vs yearly average

VDD Multiple

Compares the 30-day moving average of Value Days Destroyed (CDD × price) with its 365-day average. Peaks above 2.9 can signal cycle tops as long-term holders sell heavily; values below 0.75 suggest bear-market accumulation phases.

Long-term holder conviction vs price

Reserve Risk

Price divided by the cumulative USD value of coin-days destroyed across Bitcoin's history (the "HODL Bank"). Low values mean price is high relative to accumulated long-term-holder conviction; high values mean holders are spending heavily into strength, a sign of elevated cycle-top risk.

Cycle comparison

Bitcoin Halving Progress

Shows Bitcoin price history across all halving cycles on a logarithmic scale. Cycle backgrounds, halving markers, and progress indicators show where the current cycle sits versus prior cycles.

Breakout-era comparison

Compare Bull Markets

Aligns Bitcoin bull-market breakouts by days since price cleared the prior all-time high, scaling earlier eras to the current reward era for like-for-like cycle comparison.

Low-to-low cycle comparison

Bitcoin Epoch Cycles

Compares Bitcoin's price performance from bear-market low to bear-market low, aligning each cycle by days since its confirmed cycle low on a logarithmic scale.

Peak-to-recovery drawdown comparison

Bitcoin Cycle Drawdowns

Compares Bitcoin's percentage drawdown from each cycle peak, aligning every cycle by days since its all-time-high so depth and duration can be compared directly.

Cycle-aligned countdown comparison

Halving Cycle Countdown

Aligns every halving cycle by today's exact distance from the next projected halving, rebasing price to 100 at that same reference day so what happened next in every prior cycle can be compared from the same starting position.

Real 6-week candles with a Slow Stochastic (8,3,3) bottom-zone signal

Bitcoin 6-Week Candle Cycle Oscillator

Aggregates real Bitcoin weekly OHLC candles (Binance spot BTCUSDT) into 6-week candles, then plots a standard Slow Stochastic Oscillator (8,3,3) beneath them. The shaded "bottom zone" (%D below 20) is a textbook oversold threshold, marking only already-observed historical episodes — never a future or forecast bottom.

Smoothed trend channel

Bitcoin: Gaussian Channel (Weekly)

A 4-pole Gaussian filter and volatility bands plotted on weekly BTC closes. Price moving outside the channel has historically reverted back toward the mid filter.

Volume-weighted trend regime

Bitcoin: Smart Money Flow (Weekly)

A smoothed trend baseline with adaptive volatility bands sized by volume-weighted buying/selling pressure, plotted on weekly BTC closes. The baseline flips color when price breaks out of the bands.

Weekly MFI with confirmed cycle top/bottom markers

Bitcoin Money Flow Index Cycle Phases

BTC weekly price with a standard 14-period Money Flow Index, marking each cycle's Top, First Low, Second Low and Bottom. Real Binance weekly OHLC is used from 2017-08 onward; on-chain transaction volume substitutes for exchange volume. Markers only ever appear once fully confirmed by real, already-elapsed price history — never a forecast.

Composite score smoothed and classified into 5 cycle regimes

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator

A disclosed proxy for CryptoQuant's closed-source Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator: the Overheat Score's -100 to +100 composite of ten on-chain and technical signals, smoothed with a 30-day moving average and classified into five regimes — Overheated Bull, Bull, Early Bull, Bear and Extreme Bear. A 365-day moving average of the same score is shown for longer-term context.

Holder & Network

Unrealized profit/loss cycle phases

Bitcoin NUPL

Maps aggregate unrealized Bitcoin profit and loss into sentiment bands from Capitulation through Euphoria / Greed.

Holder profit-taking comparison

SOPR Ratio (LTH/STH)

Divides long-term holder SOPR by short-term holder SOPR to compare profit-taking behavior between experienced holders and newer market participants.

Holder profit-taking by cohort

LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR Split

Shows long-term and short-term holder SOPR separately instead of as a combined ratio. LTH capitulation below 1 has historically clustered near major cycle bottoms.

Retail search euphoria proxy

Google Trends: Bitcoin Search Interest

Tracks worldwide Google search interest for "bitcoin", a classic retail-euphoria proxy that complements the Fear & Greed Index.

Network usage and adoption trend

Bitcoin: Active Addresses

Unique daily active addresses, a fundamentals-based measure of network usage independent of the valuation-ratio charts elsewhere in this library. Falling usage while price rises is a classic late-cycle divergence warning.

LTH-MVRV-derived share of LTH supply in profit — bottom/top signal

Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in Profit

Estimates the share of Long-Term Holder supply whose cost basis sits below the current price. Grounded in bitcoin-data.com's real LTH-MVRV series (price ÷ the LTH cohort's own realized price), fed through the same modeled curve used by the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. Dips to the mean − 1σ threshold have historically coincided with major cycle-bottom capitulation.

Dormant supply share — long-term holder conviction gauge

Bitcoin Supply Unmoved 4+ Years

Tracks the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in addresses that have not moved coins in over 4 years, alongside Bitcoin price. Real UTXO age-band supply data from Bitview (Bitcoin Research Kit), a free public on-chain analytics API. Rising dormant supply reflects growing long-term holder conviction through a cycle; renewed spending of old coins has historically coincided with distribution near cycle tops.

Realized profit/loss vs. network value

Bitcoin: Sell-Side Risk Ratio

Compares total realized profit and loss to Realized Cap. Not directional — both euphoric profit-taking near tops and capitulation near bottoms push it higher — but low readings mark market equilibrium.

Modeled STH cost basis with support bands

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Bands

Estimates the average cost basis of Short-Term Holders (coins moved within ~155 days) plus Mezzanine and Floor support bands below it. No free source provides the real UTXO age-cohort data, so this models STH cost basis with a 155-day SMA of price and offsets the bands by calibrated multiples of price volatility. Floor breaches have historically marked deep capitulation bottoms.

Modeled realized price by UTXO age cohort

Realized Price UTXO Age Bands

BTC price against 13 modeled realized-price lines, one per UTXO age cohort from 0d-1d to 10y+. No free source provides the real per-cohort on-chain data (same paid-tier gap as HODL Waves), so each line is a rolling SMA of price with the window matched to that cohort's day-equivalent age.

Miner Health

Miner revenue cycle

Puell Multiple

Measures daily miner revenue against its 365-day moving average to identify miner stress buy zones and high-profit sell zones.

Miner capitulation and recovery

Hash Ribbons

Compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin hash rate. A recovery crossover after miner capitulation has historically produced strong long-term buy signals.

Miner stress through difficulty compression

Difficulty Ribbon

Layers multiple moving averages of mining difficulty. When short-term averages fall below longer-term averages, the ribbon compresses, signaling miner capitulation and historically cheap BTC.

Miner investment and network security trend

Bitcoin: Hash Rate

Total network computational power, the raw series behind the existing Hash Ribbons and Puell Multiple charts. A rising trend reflects growing miner investment and security; sharp drops mark miner capitulation events.

Fundamental price floor from mining cost

Bitcoin: Electrical Cost of Production

A Capriole-style estimate of the electricity cost to mine one Bitcoin, derived from network hash rate, an improving miner-efficiency curve and a $0.05/kWh assumption. Bitcoin has historically rarely traded below this floor for long, making tests of it strong long-term accumulation zones.

Market Structure

Estimated leveraged liquidation clusters

BTC Liquidation Heatmap

Estimates where leveraged BTC futures positions are likely to be liquidated, modeling open interest across assumed leverage tiers against recent price action as a density heatmap.

Market sentiment extremes

Fear & Greed Index

Composite sentiment score from volatility, volume, social media, and surveys. Extreme fear has historically been a reliable long-term buy signal; extreme greed suggests caution.

Aggregate selling pressure vs scarcity

Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve

Tracks the total BTC held on exchanges. Rising reserves imply more coins available for sale (bearish); falling reserves imply accumulation and increasing scarcity (bullish).

Derivatives leverage and euphoria

Funding Rate & Open Interest

Tracks perpetual futures funding rate and open interest as a gauge of leveraged market sentiment. Extreme positive funding with rising open interest has historically marked overheated, squeeze-prone conditions.

Daily flow — leading edge of reserve trend

Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow

Tracks the daily net BTC flow into or out of exchanges. Positive netflow implies more coins available for sale (bearish); negative netflow implies accumulation and increasing scarcity (bullish).

Volatility compression and turbulence regimes

Bitcoin: Realized Volatility

Annualized 30-day and 90-day realized volatility, computed from BTC's own price history. Not directional — both tops and bottoms show elevated readings — but volatility compression has historically preceded large moves in either direction.

Options-implied forward-looking volatility

Bitcoin: Implied Volatility (DVOL)

Deribit's BTC implied volatility index, derived from options prices — a forward-looking counterpart to Realized Volatility. Note: history only goes back to Deribit's index launch on 2021-03-24.

Institutional demand via US spot ETFs

Bitcoin: BTC ETF Flow

Tracks the daily net USD flow into or out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Positive net flow implies institutional buying pressure (bullish); negative net flow implies institutional selling or redemptions (bearish). Note: history only covers a rolling ~300-day window, not the full history since the ETFs' 2024-01-11 launch.

Moving Averages

Fibonacci-scaled long-term cycle bands

Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier

Plots Bitcoin's 350-day moving average multiplied by Fibonacci ratios (×0.6 through ×8). The upper bands have historically marked cycle-top resistance, while the ×0.6 low band has historically marked deep accumulation zones.

Buy/sell zones with 2-year MA bands

2-Year MA Multiplier

A Bitcoin investor tool: buy below the 2-year moving average and sell above the 2-year MA ×5. Intermediate multiplier bands show the degree of market overheating.

Overbought / oversold vs 200-day MA

Mayer Multiple

Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 have historically signaled overheated markets, while values below 1.0 have signaled undervaluation and long-term accumulation.

Long-term cycle floor and upper range

200-Week MA Heatmap

Colors price by its ratio to the 200-week moving average. The 200-week MA has historically acted as a final bear-market support, while colors above it show bull-market extension.

Full-cycle trend anchor

Bitcoin: Price vs 4-Year Moving Average

Compares BTC price to its trailing 1,460-day (4-year) moving average — roughly one halving cycle — smoothing out individual bull/bear swings to show the market's long-run trend.

Multi-timeframe trend alignment

Bitcoin Monthly MA Matrix

Overlays five long-term moving averages on BTC price — 12-month and 21-month for medium-term trend, plus 200-week, 300-week and 400-week as macro cycle references — to see how many timeframes agree on the current trend.

Weekly SMA trend-following

Bitcoin Price with Weekly 50, 100 & 200 SMA

BTC price plotted against its 50-week, 100-week and 200-week simple moving averages, resampled to a weekly cadence — a classic long-term trend-following setup where the 200-week SMA has historically marked major cycle bottoms.

Macro Indicators

Macro liquidity vs yield curve

Excess Liquidity Lead Indicator

Compares the 1-year change in the US 3-month/10-year yield spread with a 6-month-forward excess liquidity indicator. Positive and rising liquidity has historically preceded easier financial conditions and stronger risk appetite.

Equities vs macro liquidity

S&P 500 vs Excess Liquidity

Compares the S&P 500 year-over-year change with the excess liquidity lead indicator. Positive turns in excess liquidity have historically led equity market advances by roughly 6 months.

Liquidity cycle correlation

Global M2 vs BTC YoY

Compares global broad-money year-over-year growth with Bitcoin year-over-year returns to highlight how liquidity expansions and contractions align with major BTC cycles.

Dollar strength inverse signal

DXY vs Bitcoin

Compares the year-over-year change in the US dollar index with Bitcoin price to highlight the historically inverse relationship between dollar strength and BTC cycle conditions.

Long-term interest rate headwind/tailwind

US Treasury Yields

Tracks the yields on 10-year, 20-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds against Bitcoin price. Rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions and have historically been a macro headwind for risk assets, while falling yields have tended to ease conditions.

Inversion/re-steepening leading indicator

US Yield Curve (T10Y3M)

Tracks the raw 3-month/10-year US Treasury yield spread against Bitcoin price. A negative spread means the curve is inverted, a classic macro signal that has historically preceded recessions and risk-asset cycle turns by 6-18 months.

BTC & SPX RSI vs election cycles

Midterm Cycles

Overlays Bitcoin and S&P 500 12-month RSI against the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), aligned to US midterm election cycles. Historically, equity and economic conditions around midterms have preceded significant Bitcoin moves.