Bitcoin: 10,000 Possible Futures
10,000 simulated Bitcoin price paths, drawing real weekly returns from the same point of the halving cycle with power-law decaying amplitude, summarised by median, mean and 5th/95th percentile bands.
Chart Library
Tracked Bitcoin Models
New Charts
Bitcoin: United States Midterm Election
Bitcoin's price against the US election calendar, with the year before and the year after each midterm election highlighted, plus presidential election wins and inaugurations.
Bitcoin Bollinger Band Width Squeeze (BBW)
Plots the daily Bollinger Band Width (20-day, 2 standard deviations) under Bitcoin's log price. Readings at or below the red squeeze line mark volatility compression, and dashed yellow vertical lines flag the first day of each squeeze, with a green arrow (buy setup). A squeeze signals that a large move is likely, not its direction.
Bitcoin Buy/Sell Zones
Weekly green buy zones and red sell zones over Bitcoin's log price, built from the Overheat Score composite scaled to its own four-year range plus a 40-week trend-break exit. Includes a simple backtest of following the signals against holding. A disclosed model calibrated on a few cycles, not financial advice.
Bitcoin Price with Daily 50, 100 & 200 SMA
BTC price plotted against its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages on daily closes — the classic trend filters behind golden cross and death cross signals, more responsive than the weekly version.
Bitcoin: Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits
Plots the volume-weighted average USD price paid for every Bitcoin deposited into US spot ETFs since the January 2024 launch, against BTC price. Price above the line means the average ETF buyer is in profit; a break below it has historically coincided with ETF outflows and stress.
Valuation Models
Stock-to-Flow Model
Tracks Bitcoin scarcity using circulating supply and issuance flow, with a simplified model price for long-term valuation context.
Stock-to-Income Ratio
Extends the stock-to-flow idea by including miner transaction fees in issuance flow, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
MVRV Z-Score
Compares Bitcoin market cap to realized cap using a Z-Score to identify statistically extreme overvaluation and undervaluation periods.
Realized Price
Shows BTC market price against the average price where coins last moved on-chain. Price below realized price has historically marked broad holder losses and cycle stress.
Bitcoin Power Law Chart
Models Bitcoin price as a power function of time since genesis, with floor and ceiling bands that have historically contained price action across market cycles.
Bitcoin Bear Market Floor (Power Law)
Fits a power-law regression to Bitcoin's six well-documented historical bear-market lows, extrapolated forward as an illustrative long-term price floor.
Price Forecast Tools
A price forecast chart using BTC price, Top Cap, Delta Top, and CVDD to identify historically reliable Bitcoin cycle-top and bear-market-floor targets.
NVT Ratio
Network Value to Transactions ratio: Bitcoin market cap divided by daily on-chain transaction volume. High NVT can signal overvaluation relative to usage; low NVT can suggest undervaluation.
Thermocap Multiple
Market cap divided by cumulative total miner revenue. It measures how expensive Bitcoin is relative to all security spend ever made; historically high multiples often coincided with cycle tops.
Bitcoin Realized Cap
Compares Bitcoin market cap with realized cap in dollar terms — the same relationship the MVRV Z-Score is built from, shown as raw cap values rather than a standardized score.
Bitcoin: Percent Supply in Profit
Estimates the share of circulating Bitcoin whose cost basis sits below the current price. No free source provides the real UTXO cost-basis distribution, so this models it from the MVRV ratio (already used by the MVRV Z-Score chart), calibrated against 8 known historical cycle tops and bottoms. Dips to the mean − 1σ threshold have historically coincided with major cycle-bottom capitulation.
Bitcoin Realized Cap Cycle Bands
Inspired by CryptoCon's "Simple Bands" indicator: a Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom band around Realized Price (the Midline). The original is closed-source, so this models the bands by fitting the historical MVRV ratio at confirmed cycle extremes against time — both multipliers shrink toward the Midline each cycle, the same diminishing-returns pattern seen across Bitcoin's market history.
Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Projection
A fixed power-law price trend (4.42e-17 × days since genesis^5.6) across Bitcoin's full history, projected 10 years forward unchanged. A shaded cycle envelope — a ~0.55× floor and a ceiling whose cycle-top multiple decays over time — shows how far past cycles swung around the trend, and an illustrative dash-dot path sketches decaying cycle tops and ~0.55× bottoms. The path is a scenario built on stated assumptions, not a forecast or a timing guarantee.
Bitcoin Support & Resistance
Power-law trendline with support and resistance bands, paired with two oscillators: BTC's percentage deviation from the trendline, and a 52-week Z-score of the BTC/gold ratio measuring how stretched Bitcoin is relative to gold on a rolling basis.
Cycle Models
Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart
Compares price against logarithmic cycle bands so cooler accumulation zones and overheated market periods are easy to scan.
Bitcoin On-Chain Value Map
A coarser five-zone take on the logarithmic cycle bands, with all-time-high markers and right-edge dollar levels for each zone boundary.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Compares the 111-day moving average with twice the 350-day moving average to identify potential cycle-top signals.
Bitcoin Overheat Score
Combines ten on-chain and technical signals (MVRV Z-Score, Fear & Greed, Rainbow Bands, NUPL, VDD Multiple, Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, and Global M2 YoY) into a single -100 to +100 reading, highlighting historically overheated and capitulation-style conditions.
Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Oscillator
Blends MVRV Ratio, Mayer Multiple and Puell Multiple, each rescaled to its own trailing 912-day (~2.5-year) high/low, into one smoothed 0-1 oscillator. It resets toward 0 near cycle-bottom capitulation and climbs toward 1 near cycle-top euphoria, coloured blue while rising and red while falling.
Bitcoin CVDD
Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed tracks the accumulated value-time of coin movements relative to market age. It has historically marked major Bitcoin price bottoms.
Bitcoin Halving Spiral
Plots Bitcoin price on a polar chart where one full rotation equals one halving cycle. The logarithmic radius overlays cycles so bull and bear phases can be compared.
VDD Multiple
Compares the 30-day moving average of Value Days Destroyed (CDD × price) with its 365-day average. Peaks above 2.9 can signal cycle tops as long-term holders sell heavily; values below 0.75 suggest bear-market accumulation phases.
Reserve Risk
Price divided by the cumulative USD value of coin-days destroyed across Bitcoin's history (the "HODL Bank"). Low values mean price is high relative to accumulated long-term-holder conviction; high values mean holders are spending heavily into strength, a sign of elevated cycle-top risk.
Bitcoin Halving Progress
Shows Bitcoin price history across all halving cycles on a logarithmic scale. Cycle backgrounds, halving markers, and progress indicators show where the current cycle sits versus prior cycles.
Compare Bull Markets
Aligns Bitcoin bull-market breakouts by days since price cleared the prior all-time high, scaling earlier eras to the current reward era for like-for-like cycle comparison.
Bitcoin Epoch Cycles
Compares Bitcoin's price performance from bear-market low to bear-market low, aligning each cycle by days since its confirmed cycle low on a logarithmic scale.
Bitcoin Cycle Drawdowns
Compares Bitcoin's percentage drawdown from each cycle peak, aligning every cycle by days since its all-time-high so depth and duration can be compared directly.
Halving Cycle Countdown
Aligns every halving cycle by today's exact distance from the next projected halving, rebasing price to 100 at that same reference day so what happened next in every prior cycle can be compared from the same starting position.
Bitcoin 6-Week Candle Cycle Oscillator
Aggregates real Bitcoin weekly OHLC candles (Binance spot BTCUSDT) into 6-week candles, then plots a standard Slow Stochastic Oscillator (8,3,3) beneath them. The shaded "bottom zone" (%D below 20) is a textbook oversold threshold, marking only already-observed historical episodes — never a future or forecast bottom.
Bitcoin: Gaussian Channel (Weekly)
A 4-pole Gaussian filter and volatility bands plotted on weekly BTC closes. Price moving outside the channel has historically reverted back toward the mid filter.
Bitcoin: Smart Money Flow (Weekly)
A smoothed trend baseline with adaptive volatility bands sized by volume-weighted buying/selling pressure, plotted on weekly BTC closes. The baseline flips color when price breaks out of the bands.
Bitcoin Money Flow Index Cycle Phases
BTC weekly price with a standard 14-period Money Flow Index, marking each cycle's Top, First Low, Second Low and Bottom. Real Binance weekly OHLC is used from 2017-08 onward; on-chain transaction volume substitutes for exchange volume. Markers only ever appear once fully confirmed by real, already-elapsed price history — never a forecast.
Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator
A disclosed proxy for CryptoQuant's closed-source Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator: the Overheat Score's -100 to +100 composite of ten on-chain and technical signals, smoothed with a 30-day moving average and classified into five regimes — Overheated Bull, Bull, Early Bull, Bear and Extreme Bear. A 365-day moving average of the same score is shown for longer-term context.
Bitcoin Logarithmic MVRV
MVRV (price / realized price) on a logarithmic axis with three fitted trend lines — a primary top line, a secondary top line and a cycle bottom line — through the real MVRV extremes of past cycles, with each historical cycle top and bottom circled. A disclosed least-squares reconstruction of the cycle-mark technique; only fully elapsed cycle windows are used, never a forecast.
Bitcoin Aurora Channel (Weekly)
Weekly Bitcoin candles coloured by the trend regime of a smoothed Gaussian channel — teal while the filter rises, magenta while it falls — with a dot at every flip. Flips have historically landed near major cycle bottoms and tops.
Holder & Network
Bitcoin NUPL
Maps aggregate unrealized Bitcoin profit and loss into sentiment bands from Capitulation through Euphoria / Greed.
SOPR Ratio (LTH/STH)
Divides long-term holder SOPR by short-term holder SOPR to compare profit-taking behavior between experienced holders and newer market participants.
LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR Split
Shows long-term and short-term holder SOPR separately instead of as a combined ratio. LTH capitulation below 1 has historically clustered near major cycle bottoms.
Google Trends: Bitcoin Search Interest
Tracks worldwide Google search interest for "bitcoin", a classic retail-euphoria proxy that complements the Fear & Greed Index.
Bitcoin: Active Addresses
Unique daily active addresses, a fundamentals-based measure of network usage independent of the valuation-ratio charts elsewhere in this library. Falling usage while price rises is a classic late-cycle divergence warning.
Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in Profit
Estimates the share of Long-Term Holder supply whose cost basis sits below the current price. Grounded in bitcoin-data.com's real LTH-MVRV series (price ÷ the LTH cohort's own realized price), fed through the same modeled curve used by the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. Dips to the mean − 1σ threshold have historically coincided with major cycle-bottom capitulation.
Bitcoin Supply Unmoved 4+ Years
Tracks the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in addresses that have not moved coins in over 4 years, alongside Bitcoin price. Real UTXO age-band supply data from Bitview (Bitcoin Research Kit), a free public on-chain analytics API. Rising dormant supply reflects growing long-term holder conviction through a cycle; renewed spending of old coins has historically coincided with distribution near cycle tops.
Bitcoin: Sell-Side Risk Ratio
Compares total realized profit and loss to Realized Cap. Not directional — both euphoric profit-taking near tops and capitulation near bottoms push it higher — but low readings mark market equilibrium.
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Bands
Estimates the average cost basis of Short-Term Holders (coins moved within ~155 days) plus Mezzanine and Floor support bands below it. No free source provides the real UTXO age-cohort data, so this models STH cost basis with a 155-day SMA of price and offsets the bands by calibrated multiples of price volatility. Floor breaches have historically marked deep capitulation bottoms.
Realized Price UTXO Age Bands
BTC price against 13 modeled realized-price lines, one per UTXO age cohort from 0d-1d to 10y+. No free source provides the real per-cohort on-chain data (same paid-tier gap as HODL Waves), so each line is a rolling SMA of price with the window matched to that cohort's day-equivalent age.
Miner Health
Puell Multiple
Measures daily miner revenue against its 365-day moving average to identify miner stress buy zones and high-profit sell zones.
Hash Ribbons
Compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin hash rate. A recovery crossover after miner capitulation has historically produced strong long-term buy signals.
Difficulty Ribbon
Layers multiple moving averages of mining difficulty. When short-term averages fall below longer-term averages, the ribbon compresses, signaling miner capitulation and historically cheap BTC.
Bitcoin: Hash Rate
Total network computational power, the raw series behind the existing Hash Ribbons and Puell Multiple charts. A rising trend reflects growing miner investment and security; sharp drops mark miner capitulation events.
Bitcoin: Electrical Cost of Production
A Capriole-style estimate of the electricity cost to mine one Bitcoin, derived from network hash rate, an improving miner-efficiency curve and a $0.05/kWh assumption. Bitcoin has historically rarely traded below this floor for long, making tests of it strong long-term accumulation zones.
Market Structure
BTC Liquidation Heatmap
Estimates where leveraged BTC futures positions are likely to be liquidated, modeling open interest across assumed leverage tiers against recent price action as a density heatmap.
Fear & Greed Index
Composite sentiment score from volatility, volume, social media, and surveys. Extreme fear has historically been a reliable long-term buy signal; extreme greed suggests caution.
Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve
Tracks the total BTC held on exchanges. Rising reserves imply more coins available for sale (bearish); falling reserves imply accumulation and increasing scarcity (bullish).
Funding Rate & Open Interest
Tracks perpetual futures funding rate and open interest as a gauge of leveraged market sentiment. Extreme positive funding with rising open interest has historically marked overheated, squeeze-prone conditions.
Bitcoin: Exchange Netflow
Tracks the daily net BTC flow into or out of exchanges. Positive netflow implies more coins available for sale (bearish); negative netflow implies accumulation and increasing scarcity (bullish).
Bitcoin: Realized Volatility
Annualized 30-day and 90-day realized volatility, computed from BTC's own price history. Not directional — both tops and bottoms show elevated readings — but volatility compression has historically preceded large moves in either direction.
Bitcoin: Implied Volatility (DVOL)
Deribit's BTC implied volatility index, derived from options prices — a forward-looking counterpart to Realized Volatility. Note: history only goes back to Deribit's index launch on 2021-03-24.
Bitcoin: BTC ETF Flow
Tracks the daily net USD flow into or out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Positive net flow implies institutional buying pressure (bullish); negative net flow implies institutional selling or redemptions (bearish). History covers the full period since the ETFs' 2024-01-11 launch.
Bitcoin Bollinger Band Width Squeeze (BBW)
Plots the daily Bollinger Band Width (20-day, 2 standard deviations) under Bitcoin's log price. Readings at or below the red squeeze line mark volatility compression, and dashed yellow vertical lines flag the first day of each squeeze, with a green arrow (buy setup). A squeeze signals that a large move is likely, not its direction.
Bitcoin Buy/Sell Zones
Weekly green buy zones and red sell zones over Bitcoin's log price, built from the Overheat Score composite scaled to its own four-year range plus a 40-week trend-break exit. Includes a simple backtest of following the signals against holding. A disclosed model calibrated on a few cycles, not financial advice.
Bitcoin: United States Midterm Election
Bitcoin's price against the US election calendar, with the year before and the year after each midterm election highlighted, plus presidential election wins and inaugurations.
Bitcoin: 10,000 Possible Futures
10,000 simulated Bitcoin price paths, drawing real weekly returns from the same point of the halving cycle with power-law decaying amplitude, summarised by median, mean and 5th/95th percentile bands.
Bitcoin: Average Cost Basis of US Spot ETF Deposits
Plots the volume-weighted average USD price paid for every Bitcoin deposited into US spot ETFs since the January 2024 launch, against BTC price. Price above the line means the average ETF buyer is in profit; a break below it has historically coincided with ETF outflows and stress.
Moving Averages
Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier
Plots Bitcoin's 350-day moving average multiplied by Fibonacci ratios (×0.6 through ×8). The upper bands have historically marked cycle-top resistance, while the ×0.6 low band has historically marked deep accumulation zones.
2-Year MA Multiplier
A Bitcoin investor tool: buy below the 2-year moving average and sell above the 2-year MA ×5. Intermediate multiplier bands show the degree of market overheating.
Mayer Multiple
Bitcoin price divided by its 200-day moving average. Values above 2.4 have historically signaled overheated markets, while values below 1.0 have signaled undervaluation and long-term accumulation.
200-Week MA Heatmap
Colors price by its ratio to the 200-week moving average. The 200-week MA has historically acted as a final bear-market support, while colors above it show bull-market extension.
Bitcoin: Price vs 4-Year Moving Average
Compares BTC price to its trailing 1,460-day (4-year) moving average — roughly one halving cycle — smoothing out individual bull/bear swings to show the market's long-run trend.
Bitcoin Monthly MA Matrix
Overlays five long-term moving averages on BTC price — 12-month and 21-month for medium-term trend, plus 200-week, 300-week and 400-week as macro cycle references — to see how many timeframes agree on the current trend.
Bitcoin Price with Weekly 50, 100 & 200 SMA
BTC price plotted against its 50-week, 100-week and 200-week simple moving averages, resampled to a weekly cadence — a classic long-term trend-following setup where the 200-week SMA has historically marked major cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin Price with Daily 50, 100 & 200 SMA
BTC price plotted against its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages on daily closes — the classic trend filters behind golden cross and death cross signals, more responsive than the weekly version.
Macro Indicators
Excess Liquidity Lead Indicator
Compares the 1-year change in the US 3-month/10-year yield spread with a 6-month-forward excess liquidity indicator. Positive and rising liquidity has historically preceded easier financial conditions and stronger risk appetite.
S&P 500 vs Excess Liquidity
Compares the S&P 500 year-over-year change with the excess liquidity lead indicator. Positive turns in excess liquidity have historically led equity market advances by roughly 6 months.
Global M2 vs BTC YoY
Compares global broad-money year-over-year growth with Bitcoin year-over-year returns to highlight how liquidity expansions and contractions align with major BTC cycles.
DXY vs Bitcoin
Compares the year-over-year change in the US dollar index with Bitcoin price to highlight the historically inverse relationship between dollar strength and BTC cycle conditions.
US Treasury Yields
Tracks the yields on 2-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds against Bitcoin price. Rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions and have historically been a macro headwind for risk assets, while falling yields have tended to ease conditions.
US Yield Curve (T10Y3M)
Tracks the raw 3-month/10-year US Treasury yield spread against Bitcoin price. A negative spread means the curve is inverted, a classic macro signal that has historically preceded recessions and risk-asset cycle turns by 6-18 months.
Midterm Cycles
Overlays Bitcoin and S&P 500 12-month RSI against the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), aligned to US midterm election cycles. Historically, equity and economic conditions around midterms have preceded significant Bitcoin moves.
BKX/SPX Ratio vs Bitcoin (Weekly)
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) divided by the S&P 500 (SPX), plotted weekly against Bitcoin price. A rising ratio means banks are outperforming the broad market — a risk-on, credit-expansion backdrop — while sharp drops flag banking-sector stress.
BKX, SPX & Bitcoin (Weekly)
The KBW Bank Index (BKX), the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin price plotted as three separate weekly lines, each on its own log axis, to compare the direction and timing of banks, the broad equity market and BTC without a combined ratio.