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Cycle sentiment

Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Maps aggregate unrealized profit and loss into historical Bitcoin cycle sentiment zones

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Chart informationBitcoin NUPL

About This Indicator

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), also called Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss, compares Bitcoin's market value with realized value. Market value is current price multiplied by circulating supply. Realized value prices each coin where it last moved on-chain, averages those coin prices, then multiplies by circulating supply. Subtracting realized value from market value estimates aggregate paper profit or loss. Dividing that by market value creates NUPL, a sentiment gauge that maps Bitcoin cycle phases from Capitulation through Euphoria / Greed.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
Waiting for data
Realized price
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NUPL
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Cycle phase
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Waiting for realized price data to compute NUPL.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history
  • Realized price: backend realized price series derived from stored DB values and CoinMetrics community API history
  • NUPL: (BTC price - realized price) / BTC price

Last Updated

Waiting for data

Related Charts

  • SOPR Ratio (LTH/STH)Divides long-term holder SOPR by short-term holder SOPR to compare profit-taking behavior between experienced holders and newer market participants. SOPR itself measures whether spent coins are moving in profit or loss.
  • Bitcoin: Long-Term Holder Percent Supply in ProfitEstimates the share of Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply whose cost basis sits below the current price. No free source provides the full LTH UTXO cost-basis distribution this metric needs, so this chart is grounded in bitcoin-data.com's real LTH-MVRV series (price ÷ the LTH cohort's own realized price) fed through the same statistical curve used by the network-wide Percent Supply in Profit chart. Real LTH-MVRV only goes back to 2022-08 (a hard limit on this vendor's free tier); the dashed portion before that is a further estimate, fitted from the real LTH-MVRV/network-MVRV relationship over the 2022+ overlap and projected onto real network MVRV history back to 2013. Treat the solid portion as an approximation of the real metric's shape, and the dashed portion as an approximation of an approximation.
  • Bitcoin Supply Unmoved 4+ YearsTracks the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply held in addresses that have not moved coins in over 4 years, alongside Bitcoin price. This "dormant supply" grows as long-term holders accumulate and hold through market cycles, and tends to fall when old coins get spent, which has often coincided with distribution near cycle tops. Real UTXO age-band supply data, sourced from Bitview (Bitcoin Research Kit), a free public on-chain analytics API — not a proxy or model.
  • LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR SplitShows long-term and short-term holder SOPR separately instead of as a combined ratio, so profit-taking by holder cohort can be compared.