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Realized price valuation channel

Bitcoin Realized Cap Cycle Bands

BTC price with a modeled Cycle Top / Midline / Cycle Bottom channel around Realized Price

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Chart informationBitcoin Realized Cap Cycle Bands

About This Indicator

This chart is inspired by CryptoCon's popular "Simple Bands" indicator: a channel around Bitcoin's Realized Price (the per-coin cost basis behind Realized Cap, shown here as the Midline) with a Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom band above and below it. The original indicator is closed-source and its exact multipliers are not published, so this app builds a disclosed proxy instead: Cycle Top and Cycle Bottom are Realized Price multiplied by factors fitted (least-squares, log10 of days since genesis) to the real MVRV ratio (price / realized price) at the confirmed post-genesis cycle extremes — the 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 tops and the 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms. Both multipliers shrink toward 1x (the Midline) with each cycle, mirroring the well-documented "diminishing returns" pattern of Bitcoin's market cycles. Treat this as an approximation of the original indicator's shape, not a decoded or reverse-engineered copy of it.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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Cycle top
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Midline (realized price)
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Cycle bottom
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Waiting for realized price data.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history.
  • Realized price: stored DB values plus CoinMetrics community API history derived from PriceUSD / CapMVRVCur.
  • Cycle Top / Cycle Bottom: modeled proxy, not a directly measured metric — Realized Price multiplied by a factor fitted against the confirmed historical cycle extremes (5 tops, 4 bottoms). See "About" for details and limitations.

Last Updated

Waiting for data

Related Charts

  • Stock-to-Flow ModelCompares existing Bitcoin supply (stock) with new issuance (flow) to model scarcity. The app derives a model price from the ratio using the calibration 0.4 × ratio³.
  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.