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Valuation model

MVRV Z-Score

Market value vs realized value to identify statistically extreme cycle positions

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Chart informationMVRV Z-Score

About This Indicator

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, then normalizes the difference using standard deviation. Values above 7 historically signal major cycle tops; negative values have marked generational buying opportunities.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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Realized price
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MVRV Z-Score
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Signal
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Waiting for the latest MVRV Z-Score data.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko via backend DB (full history)
  • Realized price (June 2022-present): bitcoin-data.com (actual on-chain data)
  • Realized price (pre-June 2022): 5-year EMA proxy - approximation of long-term cost basis
  • MVRV Z-Score: ln(price / realized) x 4, calibrated to match traditional cycle-top scale

Last Updated

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Related Charts

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  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.
  • Bitcoin Power Law ChartModels Bitcoin price as a power function of time since genesis, with floor and ceiling bands that have historically contained price action across market cycles.