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Valuation model

Bitcoin Power Law Chart

Long-term price model based on power law regression since Bitcoin genesis

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Chart informationBitcoin Power Law Chart

About This Indicator

The Bitcoin Power Law Chart models Bitcoin's price as a power function of time since genesis (Jan 3, 2009). Logarithmic regression produces a long-term fair value (Model) line with upper (Ceiling) and lower (Floor) price bounds that have historically contained Bitcoin's price through multiple market cycles.

Current Value & Interpretation

Current price
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Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API
  • Model: power law regression - log10(Price) = 5.845 x log10(days since genesis) - 17.016
  • Floor / Ceiling: x0.25 below / x10 above model price

Last Updated

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Related Charts

  • Stock-to-Flow ModelCompares existing Bitcoin supply (stock) with new issuance (flow) to model scarcity. The app derives a model price from the ratio using the calibration 0.4 × ratio³.
  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.