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Valuation Models

Price Forecast Tools

Bitcoin price models: market cycle tops and bottoms

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Chart informationPrice Forecast Tools

About This Indicator

Price Forecast Tools combines on-chain models to identify historically reliable price targets. Top Cap and Delta Top have tracked Bitcoin's cycle highs; CVDD has tracked major bear-market lows.

Current Value & Interpretation

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Data Sources

  • BTC Price & Supply: CoinGecko + halving schedule (stored daily)
  • Top Cap & Delta Top: Computed from Average Cap and Realized Cap — full history
  • CVDD: Power-law model shared with the Bitcoin CVDD chart

Last Updated

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Related Charts

  • Stock-to-Flow ModelCompares existing Bitcoin supply (stock) with new issuance (flow) to model scarcity. The app derives a model price from the ratio using the calibration 0.4 × ratio³.
  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.