BitWLab logoBitWLab
ChartsEconomic CalendarSign inRegister
Back to chart library

Long-term model

Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Projection

Fixed power-law trend with a decaying cycle envelope, projected years ahead

Last updatedWaiting for data

The request could not be completed. Please try again.

Chart informationBitcoin Power Law Cycle Projection

About This Indicator

This chart plots a fixed power-law trend, price = 4.42e-17 x (days since genesis)^5.6, across Bitcoin's full history and projects the same formula forward unchanged. A shaded envelope shows how far past cycles have swung around the trend: a constant ~0.55x floor and a ceiling whose cycle-top multiple decays over time. The dash-dot blue line is an illustrative scenario of future cycle tops and bottoms, not a forecast or timing guarantee.

Current Value & Interpretation

Current price
Waiting for data

Waiting for the latest price data.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: same daily price history used across the app
  • Trend: fixed power-law formula, price = 4.42e-17 x (days since genesis)^5.6 — no fitting to the loaded data
  • Envelope: assumed multiples of trend — floor ~0.55x, ceiling decaying from ~2.15x (2029 top) to ~1.80x (2033 top). Scenario path: illustrative assumptions, not computed from data

Last Updated

Waiting for data

Related Charts

  • Stock-to-Flow ModelCompares existing Bitcoin supply (stock) with new issuance (flow) to model scarcity. The app derives a model price from the ratio using the calibration 0.4 × ratio³.
  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.