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On-Chain Collection

Bitcoin: Percent Supply in Profit

Modeled estimate of the share of supply in profit — a bottom-signal indicator, not a directly measured on-chain metric

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Chart informationBitcoin: Percent Supply in Profit

About This Indicator

Percent Supply in Profit estimates the share of circulating Bitcoin whose cost basis sits below the current price. This app does not have access to a free source for the real metric, which requires the full UTXO cost-basis distribution — every provider checked (CoinMetrics, bitcoin-data.com) gates that data behind a paid tier. Instead, this chart models it from the MVRV ratio (price ÷ realized price) already used by the MVRV Z-Score and Realized Price charts, passed through a statistical curve calibrated against known historical cycle tops and bottoms. Treat it as an approximation of the shape of the real metric, not a precise on-chain measurement.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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Percent supply in profit
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Mean − 1σ threshold
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Signal
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Waiting for realized price data.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history
  • Realized price: CoinMetrics community API (CapMVRVCur × PriceUSD), the same real on-chain series used by the MVRV Z-Score and Realized Price charts
  • Percent Supply in Profit: modeled proxy, not a directly measured metric — a split-sigma normal CDF of ln(MVRV ratio), calibrated against 8 known historical cycle tops and bottoms. See "About" for details and limitations.

Last Updated

Waiting for data

Related Charts

  • Stock-to-Flow ModelCompares existing Bitcoin supply (stock) with new issuance (flow) to model scarcity. The app derives a model price from the ratio using the calibration 0.4 × ratio³.
  • Stock-to-Income RatioExtends the Stock-to-Flow idea by folding miner transaction fees/income into the issuance side, giving another lens on Bitcoin scarcity and model valuation.
  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.