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Monte Carlo simulation

Bitcoin: 10,000 Possible Futures

Eight years of simulated Bitcoin price paths, conditioned on the halving cycle with decaying returns

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Chart informationBitcoin: 10,000 Possible Futures

About This Indicator

This chart simulates 10,000 possible Bitcoin price paths over the next eight years. Each simulated week draws a real historical weekly return from the same point of the halving cycle, then shrinks it as Bitcoin ages (a power-law decay with exponent 0.45), so later cycles are calmer than early ones. The black line is the median path, the gold line the mean (pulled up by rare huge outcomes), and the blue lines the 5th and 95th percentiles; the purple fan shows a sample of individual paths. It is an illustration of how wide the range of outcomes is, not a price forecast.

Current Value & Interpretation

Current price
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Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: same daily price history used across the app, resampled to weekly closes (returns from 2014 onward)
  • Halving dates: past halvings are fixed; the 2028 and 2032 halvings are estimated at 210,000 blocks (about 1,458 days) apart

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