On-Chain Valuation
Bitcoin Logarithmic MVRV
MVRV on a log scale with fitted cycle-top and cycle-bottom lines — marking where each Bitcoin cycle has historically peaked and bottomed
Chart informationBitcoin Logarithmic MVRV
About This Indicator
MVRV is Bitcoin's market value divided by its realized value (price / realized price). Plotted on a logarithmic axis, each cycle's peaks and troughs fall close to straight lines: cycle tops reach progressively lower MVRV readings and cycle bottoms progressively higher ones, as the market matures. This chart fits three log-linear trend lines through the real MVRV extremes of past cycles — a primary top line, a secondary top line and a cycle bottom line — and marks each historical cycle top and bottom with a circle. The lines are a disclosed least-squares reconstruction of this well-known cycle-mark technique, not any analyst's hand-drawn lines. Extremes are snapped to the actual MVRV peak or trough inside a fixed search window around each known cycle date; only fully elapsed windows are used, never a forecast. BTC price is shown on a second log axis in the upper half of the chart for context.
Current Value & Interpretation
- BTC price
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- MVRV ratio
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- Primary top line
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- Secondary top line
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- Cycle bottom line
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Waiting for enough history to fit the cycle lines.
Data Sources
- MVRV ratio: daily BTC price divided by realized price (CoinMetrics / bitcoin-data.com, same source as the MVRV Z-Score and Realized Price charts).
- Cycle lines: least-squares fit of ln(MVRV) against time through the real MVRV extremes of past cycles (a disclosed reconstruction, not a prediction).
Last Updated
Waiting for data