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Cycle timing

Bitcoin Buy/Sell Zones

Weekly accumulate and take-profit zones built from the Overheat Score composite, the 40-week trend and momentum

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Chart informationBitcoin Buy/Sell Zones

About This Indicator

Weekly buy and sell zones for Bitcoin, built from signals this app already computes. The base is the Overheat Score composite (MVRV Z-Score, Fear & Greed, Rainbow, Realized Price, NUPL, VDD, Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, Puell, Global M2), smoothed over 30 days and scaled against its own trailing four-year range so that every cycle is judged against its recent past (0 = as cheap as anything in four years, 100 = as overheated). A green Buy zone opens when the cycle position is in the bottom fifth and price has stopped making new 8-week lows; it closes once the reading passes 40. A red Sell zone opens when the position is in the top fifth and momentum rolls over — or when price closes below its 40-week average while the position is above 40 — and it closes once the position falls back to 50. Sells only apply while holding. The backtest buys at each buy signal and sells at each sell signal, with no fees or slippage, from 2014. This is a disclosed model calibrated on only three to four cycles: signals are early at bottoms and early at tops, past results do not guarantee future outcomes, and nothing here is financial advice.

Current Value & Interpretation

BTC price
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Current zone
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Cycle position (0 cheap – 100 overheated)
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Last signal
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Backtest: follow the signals
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Backtest: just hold BTC
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Backtest window
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Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: CoinGecko API via backend price history. Composite inputs are the same on-chain, sentiment and liquidity series used by the Overheat Score chart (CoinMetrics, bitcoin-data.com, alternative.me, FRED); no additional data source is used.

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Related Charts

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