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Valuation model

Bitcoin Bear Market Floor (Power Law)

Power-law regression fit to Bitcoin's historical bear-market lows, extrapolated forward

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Chart informationBitcoin Bear Market Floor (Power Law)

About This Indicator

The Bitcoin Bear Market Floor model fits a power-law regression to Bitcoin's six well-documented historical bear-market lows (2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2022), then extrapolates that curve forward as an illustrative long-term floor. It is a curve fit to just six points, not a prediction of future prices.

Current Value & Interpretation

Current price
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Data Sources

  • Bitcoin price: same daily price history used across the app
  • Historical lows: lowest recorded closing price within each known bear-market window (2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2022)

Last Updated

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Related Charts

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  • MVRV Z-ScoreCompares Bitcoin market value with realized value, normalized to a Z-Score, to identify historically overheated and undervalued conditions.
  • Realized PriceEstimates the average on-chain acquisition price of circulating coins (aggregate cost basis). Spot below realized price implies aggregate loss; spot far above implies a large profit premium.