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Macro Indicators

S&P 500 vs Excess Liquidity

S&P 500 yearly % change vs M2/GDP excess liquidity - 6-month lead signal

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Chart informationS&P 500 vs Excess Liquidity

About This Indicator

This chart overlays the S&P 500 year-over-year % change with the Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator (US M2 money supply growth minus nominal GDP growth, shifted 6 months forward). When excess liquidity is positive, money supply is growing faster than the economy, historically supporting equity prices over the following 6 months. The 6-month forward shift makes the indicator a leading signal for SPX direction. The faint black line is BTC price (log scale) for context.

Current Value & Interpretation

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Data Sources

  • S&P 500: FRED SP500 series (Federal Reserve, daily from 2016)
  • Excess Liquidity: FRED M2SL (monthly) minus FRED GDP YoY growth (quarterly, interpolated)
  • BTC price: local Bitcoin daily price history

Last Updated

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Related Charts

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