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Macro Indicators

Excess Liquidity Lead Indicator

Yield curve change vs. M2/GDP liquidity surplus — 6-month leading signal

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Chart informationExcess Liquidity Leading Indicator

About This Indicator

This chart overlays two macro indicators against Bitcoin price to gauge financial conditions and their leading relationship with risk assets. The blue line shows the 1-year change in the 3-month/10-year Treasury yield spread in basis points — a proxy for credit conditions. The orange line shows Excess Liquidity (M2 money supply growth minus nominal GDP growth) shifted 6 months forward, revealing how today's liquidity environment tends to lead market conditions. The faint black line is BTC price (log scale) for context.

Current Value & Interpretation

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Data Sources

  • 3m/10y Spread: FRED T10Y3M (Federal Reserve, daily)
  • Excess Liquidity: FRED M2SL (monthly) minus FRED GDP YoY growth (quarterly, interpolated)
  • BTC price: local Bitcoin daily price history

Last Updated

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Related Charts

  • S&P 500 vs Excess LiquidityCompares S&P 500 year-over-year change with the Excess Liquidity lead indicator. Positive turns in excess liquidity have historically led equity market advances by roughly 6 months.
  • Global M2 vs BTC YoYCompares global broad-money (M2) year-over-year growth with Bitcoin year-over-year returns.
  • DXY vs BitcoinTracks the US Dollar Index (DXY) year-over-year change against Bitcoin. Bitcoin often performs better when dollar liquidity conditions ease, though the relationship is not mechanical.
  • US Treasury YieldsTracks US 10-year, 20-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields against Bitcoin price. Rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions and have historically been a macro headwind for risk assets; falling yields have tended to ease conditions.