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Cycle Indicator

Reserve Risk

Price ÷ HODL Bank — long-term holder conviction relative to price

Last updatedWaiting for data

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Chart informationReserve Risk

About This Indicator

Reserve Risk measures the cost of buying Bitcoin at the current price relative to the conviction of long-term holders. It is calculated as Price ÷ HODL Bank, where HODL Bank is the cumulative USD value of coin-days destroyed across Bitcoin's entire history — an ever-growing measure of the opportunity cost long-term holders have collectively paid by not selling. Low values mean price is high relative to that accumulated conviction (an attractive risk/reward for buyers); high values mean long-term holders are spending heavily into strength, a sign of reduced conviction and elevated cycle-top risk.

Current Value & Interpretation

Waiting for sufficient on-chain data to compute Reserve Risk.

Data Sources

  • Bitcoin Price: CoinGecko API (stored daily)
  • Reserve Risk: bitcoin-data.com (stored daily; history available from 2022-08-05 onward)

Last Updated

Waiting for data

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